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The Effect of Criminal History Variables on the Process of Desistance in Adulthood Among Serious Youthful Offenders

Vanderbilt University, mike.ezell{at}vanderbilt.edu

Given the theoretical disagreement between population heterogeneity and state dependence theories in regard to the relevance of specific criminal history variables, this study examines the effects of several criminal history variables on the risk of a new arrest in adulthood among a sample of serious youthful offenders. Findings show that even after controlling for prior differences in offending levels, the duration of time since the last arrest is a strong (and negative) predictor of the risk of a subsequent arrest. Results also suggest that criminal activity in early adulthood is more informative on risk prediction than elements of criminal past tied to the juvenile status.

Key Words: adult offending • desistance • age of onset • juvenile offending • population heterogeneity • state dependence

Journal of Contemporary Criminal Justice, Vol. 23, No. 1, 28-49 (2007)
DOI: 10.1177/1043986206298943


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