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Risk Assessment in Organized Crime

Developing a Market and Product-Based Model to Determine Threat Levels

Virginia Commonwealth University, Richmond

The risk posed by organized crime is a central concern of governments around the world. The infiltration and control of legal and illegal markets and products is a major concern in nearly every country. New agencies and initiatives are under way in the United Kingdom, Canada, New Zealand, Belgium, and elsewhere, with the specific purpose to better predict and detect organized crime activity. This article proposes a model to assess the risk of organized crime. It employs a different unit of analysis from most current models, focusing on illicit markets rather than groups, and it offers a practical alternative for determining the presence of organized crime in areas that may or may not have a history of organized crime involvement.

Key Words: organized crime • risk assessment • prediction • illicit markets • threat assessment • criminal markets

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